… that which came with the help of luck could be taken away by luck … things that come with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.
Skewness issue; it doesn't matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly.
coup de foudre, a sudden intense infatuation.
Nero's trading style; extreme risk aversion, I love taking small losses, I just need my winners to be large.
Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with high probability. Beyond that it is all randomness; either by taking enormous risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. Mild success can be explainable by skills and labour. Wild success is attributed to variance.
Most people prefer to make $70k when others around them are making $60k than making $80k when others are making $90k.
Serotonin and Randomness, Your dentist is rich, very rich
Alternative History.
The quality of a decision cannot be judged based on its outcome. (Judge decisions based on the costs of the alternative)
$10 million earned through Russian roulette does not have the same value as if it were earned through artful practice of dentistry.
There is a distinction between the mind of a pure mathematician thriving on abstraction and that of a scientist consumed by curiosity. A mathematician is absorbed by what goes into his head while a scientist searches into what is outside of himself. (?)
Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behaviour not because they won or lost.
I can no longer visualize a realized outcome without referenced to the nonrealized ones.
[History] affects the way I would wish to think by referencing past events, by being able to better instead; the ideas of others and leverage them, correct the mental defects that seem to block my ability to learn from others.
Amnesic patients shows signs of learning without being stored in conscious memory — Claparede pin handshake experiment.
(non)Conscious/declarative memory. Much of the risk avoidance that comes form experiences is part of the second.
A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.
On the difference between noise and information
It is not how likely an event is to happen that matters but how much is made is when it happens. How frequent the profit is irrelevant; it is the magnitude of the outcome that counts.
Popper, two types of theories:
- theories known to be wrong and rejected (falsified)
- theories that have not been falsified yet
The matter of knowledge and discovery is not so much in dealing with what we know as in dealing with what we do not know.
In an open society no permanent truth is held to exist; allowing for counter-ideas to emerge.
I will use inductive methods and statistics to make aggressive bets, but I will not use them to manage my risks and exposure. (?)
CNBC At Lunchtime
I have experienced leaps of joy over results that I knew was mere noise, and bouts of unhappiness over results that did not carry the slightest degree of statistical significance.
Most of know how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem. (Cigarette smoker)
My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.
Attribution bias: Attributing success to skill and failures to randomness. 80% think they are above the median in many things
Start stressing personal elegance at your next misfortune, Exhibit sapere vivere (know how to live) in all circumstances.
Dress at your best on your execution day. The dignified attitude will make both defeat and victory feel equally heroic. Try not to blame others of your fate, even if they deserve blame. Never exhibit any self-pity. Do not complain. The only article Lady Fortuna has no control over is your behaviour. Good Luck